TedEd: Why do people fear the wrong things?

A TedEd by Gerd Gigerenzer

Risk can be represented in two ways: absolute and relative. Relative risk is comparing risk to the previous risk, while absolute percentages are represented in the current overall percentage. Let's say there is a new drug that can reduce heart attacks. Out of 1000 people in a control group, 10 get a heart attack. In a group that gets the drug, only 6 do. That means there is a relative risk reduction of 40%, while the absolute risk goes from 1% to 0.6% - not a big change. The relative risk reduction makes the drug seem more substantial. But let's say it caused cancer in 0.5% of the patients. In our group of 1000, there would be 4 less heart attacks, but 5 more cases of cancer. Even though the relative percentage of 40% sounds much bigger than the absolute cancer risk of 0.5%, they end up in about the same number. However, risk evaluation varies for everyone. If you know that you have a genetically high risk of heart attack, you might take the drug despite the chance of getting cancer. There are also many cases with no correct answer. Some may skip a swim in the ocean because of the tiny probability of a shark attack, while others wouldn't dream of such a thing. But understanding how measures of risk work is a good step toward making sure you do it right.

The Fault In Our Stars

The Fault In Our Stars

By John Green

Read in 9th Grade

Hazel Grace Lancaster is a 16-year-old girl with lung cancer. She attends a support group for cancer kids, but only because she wants to appease her mother. Hazel generally considers it a waste of time - until she meets Augustus Waters. He once had cancer in his leg, which had to be amputated. Now, he is at the support group with his soon to be blind friend, Isaac, who has eye cancer. Hazel looks remarkably like his dead girlfriend, Caroline Mathers. He immediately asks her out, and by the end of the night, they have exchanged books. Her favorite book is An Imperial Affliction by Peter Van Houten, narrated by a girl named Anna, who has cancer.

CNN 10 6/15/2020 ~ 6/19/2020

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Monday, June 15, 2020

Protests have been occurring across America in the light of the murder of George Floyd, an African American man. He was killed by a Minneapolis police officer in his arrest for allegedly using counterfeit money to buy cigarettes. Protestors and officials have said that the police were using excessive force and being racist. While many protests have been peaceful, some have turned violent, resulting in looting and property damage. There have been calls for police reform, and even defunding, but others say that most police are good, necessary people. Congress is trying to come up with a bipartisan package for police reform (to show how relevant this is, this is part of this year's policy debate resolution). The coronavirus recession has been officially announced by the NBER, the body responsible for analyzing the American economic situation. February saw the end of America's longest growth period and the beginning of a recession. Although it is projected to be one of the worst, it may also be short. The May jobs growth report saw record hiring after record layoffs. CNN Heroes Chad Houser and Cathryn Couch have turned their nonprofits into food centers to help those in need during this crisis.

TedEd: When is a pandemic over?

A TedEd by Alex Rosenthal

Several months ago, the COVID-19 disease transferred to humans through animals. It quickly spread when public health measures couldn't contain it, and the WHO declared a pandemic. As the death tolls rise, many are wondering the same thing: When will it be over? The WHO will declare it over when the virus is contained and infection rates drop. There are three main ways this could happen. Race Through It, Delay and Vaccinate, or Coordinate and Crush. The first is when governments do nothing to stop the virus and allow people to be infected. Doctors and researchers have little time to learn about the virus, and hospitals quickly overflow. Many millions die, and people either die or become immune. At this point, we gain herd immunity and the virus cannot infect anymore people. The pandemic is over as soon as it began. The second method also involves herd immunity. Delay and vaccinate works when governments enforce strict public health protocols the minute the pandemic breaks out. Widespread testing, quarantine of those infected, and physical distancing slow the spread of the virus. This gives researchers time to study the virus and find a vaccine over the next few years. Once a majority of a population has received it, herd immunity eradicates the virus. The death toll here is just a few hundred thousand, much lower than in race through it tactics. Coordinate and crush occurs when governments work together to stop the virus from spreading instead of only looking at their own countries. In a typical pandemic, one country peaks as another sees its first cases, and when things like quarantine and travel restrictions are coordinated properly, the virus is contained. However, the virus could return unless it is eradicated, which is highly unlikely. So which method is best? Vaccination is often considered to be the best, as it has low death tolls and is more likely to work than the other two. Plus, it could be reused in the future.