Most people today have an incorrect view of the world. They think the world is constantly getting worse. But it's not. While the world is still not perfect, it is constantly getting better. This book outlines 10 instincts that give us these misperceptions, and ways to control them.
The first one is the gap instinct. It's most obvious in the way Westerners like to classify people into "Us" and "Them". We like to pretend that we are better than the rest of the world, but a more accurate classification is the 4 level system. The levels represent different income levels, and Level 4 is modern society while Level 1 is extreme poverty with high child mortality and low average life span. Most of the world lives in between, on levels 2 and 3. And yet we erase all of those billions of people and put a gap in between. This gap instinct can be triggered by a number of things, ranging from comparing extremes to looking at averages.
Next is the negativity instinct, or the urge to notice the bad more than the good. Part of this is due to evolutionary history. We had to be on guard against the bad. Another reason is the media. Reporting good news will almost never result in headlines, and when we're constantly being fed negative news, it's no wonder we feel this way. Finally, even if the general trend is going up, we can feel it is heartless to say so if things are still bad. One key thing to remember is that things can be both bad and getting better at the same time. We also have a tendency to make the past look better, which can result in feeling that the present is worse.
The third is the straight-line instinct. This happens when we look at a chart about world statistics, seeing heading up now, and assume it will continue straight up. In reality, most actual curve into an s-shape.
The fear instinct makes us overestimate the dangers that we are most afraid of, even if they're unlikely. Even though the world is safer than ever, we are constantly bombarded with bad news about natural disasters, terrorism, and other things we often see on the news. As mentioned before, only this type of stuff is sensational, but the fact is, fewer people are being killed by natural disasters. This is because it mostly kills those in Level 1, and that sector is rapidly shrinking.
The size instinct causes us to disproportionately inflate isolated numbers. We have to compare them to previous years or other numbers in order to get them into perspective. We can also use the 80/20 rule. 20% of something often accounts for 80% of the total.
The generalization instinct is used when a category is used to define something. For example, entire groups can be generalized using the majority rule - even if it is just a 51% majority. Europeans also tend to generalize the continent of Africa into something hopeless. They believe only 20% of children are vaccinated when 88% are. This is a huge investment opportunity because transporting vaccines requires massive infrastructure in developing places like Africa.
Similarly, destiny instinct causes us to determine the destinies of people based on their ethnicity or religion. However, the perspectives of people and cultures can change, and leaders of certain groups have less authority than they think. Even though Christian leaders say that contraceptives shouldn't be used, use is still high, and birthrates are low. In addition, even though changes in developing countries seem slow, they can actually build up to a substantial number over time.
The seventh instinct is single perspective. This can happen with experts. They try to apply their knowledge of one thing to everything in life, which can cause them to miss different ways to do things. Instead of using the same hammer on every nail, get a toolbox.
The next one is something everyone will recognize. The blame instinct. We always try to find a reason for bad things, and this leads to pointing fingers. But often, there are other explanations, and blaming stops future progress. For example, China and India are often blamed for the world's CO2 emissions because they are rising countries. But many Western, Level 4 countries produce more CO2. Similarly, people will immediately try to claim responsibility for good things.
Lastly, the urgency instinct. We make bad decisions when we think something is urgent because we are overloaded by the pressure of having to pick fast. This is due to our evolutionary history. We evolved to quickly assess and respond to dangers in the wild. This is used by politicians, marketers, and activists alike to get us to do something. But stepping back and looking at the facts and data can often help make better decisions.
"Factfulness is...recognizing when a category is being used in an explanation,
and remembering that categories can be misleading" (165).
"The destiny instinct is the idea that innate characteristics determine the
destinies of people, countries, religions, or cultures...they have always been
this way and will never change" (167).
"I have never heard anyone in Sweden say anything close to that. Even highly
educated Swedes seem completely unaware of the changes that have taken place.
The improvements. The modernity. They think Iran is on the same level as
Afghanistan" (174).
"Values change all the time" (176).
"Factfulness is...recognizing that many things (including people, countries,
religions, and cultures) appear to be constant just because the change is
happening slowly..." (184).
"Being intelligent-being good with numbers, or being well educated, or even
winning a Nobel Prize-is not a shortcut to global factual knowledge. Experts
are experts only within their field" (188).
"Just as Cuba is the poorest of the healthy because of its commitment to a
single idea, the United States is the sickest of the rich" (198).
"Factfulness is...recognizing that a single perspective can limit your
imagination, and remembering that it is better to look at problems from many
angles to get a more accurate understanding and find practical solutions"
(202).
"Reflecting reality is not something the media can be expected to do. You
should not expect the media to provide you with a fact-based worldview any
more than you would think it reasonable to use a set of holiday snaps of
Berlin as your GPS system to help you navigate around the city" (212).
"Factfulness is...recognizing when a scapegoat is being used and remembering
that blaming an individual often steals the focus from other possible
explanations and blocks our ability to prevent similar problems in the future"
(222).
"Relax. It's almost never true. It's almost never urgent, and it's almost
never and either/or. You can put the book down if you like and do something
else" (227).
"When you are called to action, sometimes the most useful action you can take
is to improve the data" (232).
"Factfulness is...recognizing when a decision feels urgent and remembering
that it rarely is" (242).
