National Geographic: Why new coronavirus variants 'suddenly arose' in the U.K. and South Africa

By Maya Wei-Haas

    In early December, COVID-19 cases started going up in Kent in the UK. Researchers with the COIVD-19 Genomics Consortium in the UK started looking toward mutations in the virus for clues as to what was happening.

"For SARS-CoV-2, these mutations—the small errors made naturally when genomes are copied—develop at a steady pace of one or two each month, says Loman, a professor of microbial genomics and bioinformatics at the University of Birmingham. Yet among the Kent cases, scientists found a large cluster that was remarkably different, with a total of 23 mutations arising without prior notice and faster than anyone expected."

    Further research also revealed that the new variant, called B.1.1.7 or 501Y.V1 had begun to increase beginning in September. On the 23rd, another variant from South Africa had also reached England. One reason this may have happened is because of the ways that the first patients were treated. Doctors didn't know what did and didn't work, so they tried a barrage of therapies, many of which weren't fully effective and led to increased evolutionary pressure on the virus. However, not all mutations have an outward or beneficial effect. Some may do nothing, while others may even be harmful.

"Of the 23 mutations in the United Kingdom's variant, 17 are at positions in the genome that alter the building blocks that make up the virus’s proteins, as described in a recent COVID-19 Genomics Consortium report from Loman and his colleagues. The consortium stated such a large shift is so far 'unprecedented' for the COVID-19 pandemic. Eight of those changes lie in the region that encodes for the spike protein—the key that SARS-CoV-2 uses to enter cells...modeling and prior laboratory work hints at the possibility that it could make the virus more contagious. A greater abundance of cases could mean more hospitalizations and deaths."

    Although the new variant may not be more lethal, the new variants may make it more contagious and allow the spike proteins to bind more easily. Although the origin of the new viral strain is unknown, it's suspected that it can generate more mutations in patients that are infected for prolonged periods. It gives the virus time to replicate more, meaning that more mutations can occur.