The New Yorker: Can Democrats Win Georgia - and the Senate?

By Charles Bethea

    In 2014, the New Georgia Project was founded by Stacey Abrams, and its volunteers have assisted millions in getting to the polls. Along with a few groups like it, the New Georgia Project helped get Biden a victory in the red state.

    Early voting for the special election in the state ended on December 31st, and the organization planned to knock on a million doors before then.

"The incumbents, David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler, 'do not give a damn about the fact that Black folks are dying at an alarming clip in our state,' Ufot said...Health disparities are particularly stark in Georgia’s rural Black Belt, she noted, where the pandemic has taken a heavy toll. 'What an incredible holiday gift it would be to send Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff to the United States Senate so they can go there to do the people’s work,' she added."

    Rafael Warnock is a pastor at Ebeneezer Baptist Church, and Jon Ossoff is the CEO of a company that produces investigative documentaries. This is Warnock's first bid for office, while Ossoff ran unsuccessfully for the House in 2018. The two will be able to get more votes together because "'Their audiences will bleed over to one another'". Ossoff will introduce his mostly white voters to Warnock, while Warnock will help Ossoff win over Black communities. But of course, this all depends on getting voters to the polls, especially for the Democratic candidates.

"Bernard Fraga, a professor of political science at Emory and the author of 'The Turnout Gap,' told me that turnout tends to drop by forty per cent or more for runoff elections. In Georgia, he explained, the drop-off is typically more severe among Democrats. But he didn’t expect this runoff to be typical. We might see a drop-off as small as fifteen per cent, he suggested. 'But will that historically low drop-off be disproportionately Republican or Democratic?' he asked. 'That’s what these groups on the ground are trying to decide.'"

    The organizations have an especially difficult job this time of year as people look toward the holidays, not voting. Warnock and Ossoff have raised 2 million dollars for their campaign and sent out cards reminding people to go vote. Even though Democrats have lost all but one of the most recent Georgia runoffs, many believe that the increase in Black voters during the November election signals that this year is different. Even some Republican voters have decided to go with the Democrats.

"A week later, I called Ufot. 'I feel really good,' she told me. She had just left an early-voting location...She was headed to a suburban Atlanta county that went for Biden. 'People are definitely voting,' she said, despite 'how hard the G.O.P. is going after voting rights and voting locations.'...By the end of early voting, more than three million Georgians had cast their ballots, and the early data appeared to favor the Democrats: there were thousands of new voters, a high percentage of Black voters, and somewhat lower turnout—so far; Election Day voting may rebalance things—in conservative parts of the state...Ufot’s hopeful tone reminded me of the biggest applause line at the Biden rally, which was delivered, not surprisingly, by Warnock. 'It’s dark,' he’d said. 'But morning is on the way. Hold on.'"