Even though herd immunity isn't necessarily the end of COVID-19 like many people assume, it is an important step toward making sure outbreaks are preventable and fewer in number. Herd immunity occurs once enough people are immune to a disease, either by vaccination or infection, that the virus can no longer find any hosts. This means that the transmission rate would be less than 1. Based on the transmission rate of around 3 to 4 during the early days of COVID, scientists estimated that around 60-70% vaccination would be required for herd immunity, though that number has since risen to 85% due to more dangerous variants. But many health officials in the U.S. are becoming more concerned that we may not reach that number due to a combination of slowing vaccination rates and increased hesitancy and false information.
The Biden Administration and various state governments are working to try to get more people vaccinated, using tactics like offering free beer or lottery entries for full vaccination. But what happens if the U.S. can't reach herd immunity?
The most important thing here is that a majority of the almost 50% of people vaccinated are 65 or older or otherwise compromised in the case that they contract the virus. Should they get it now, they are better protected, meaning that death rates will go down a lot, which is key in ending a pandemic. Even if pockets do continue to have outbreaks, they will be controlled, and likely won't cause major shutdowns. In fact, Israel was able to reopen at 54% vaccination with no major side effects.
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