National Geographic: Arctic summer sea ice could disappear as early as 2035

National Geographic: Arctic summer sea ice could disappear as early as 2035

By Alejandra Borunda

For years now, we have known that the Arctic ice as been disappearing rapidly. In the 1980's, summer ice covered an average to 3.8 million square miles. Now, that number has been reduced to just 2.8 million, having declined at about 27,000 square miles a year. In fact, a recent study found that as soon as 2035, the Arctic could become ice-less in the summer.

    The Arctic sees twice as much temperature increase as the rest of the planet, and climate change is also accelerating at the same time. This could affect everything. Ice shelves that protected the coast from erosion are gone, endangering many costal native villages. The cold of the Arctic compared to the heat of the equator also creates ocean and air circulation, and the white reflects the solar heat.

    This year, climate change caused an unprecedented heat wave in Siberia, sending temperatures above 100 degrees Fahrenheit. During this heat wave, Canada's last ice shelf melted. So when will there be no summer ice? We can use the Last Interglacial period to make an estimation. About 130,000 years ago, Arctic temperatures were around 7 degrees F above pre-industrial averages, with much higher sea levels. We have evidence that when ice first started to melt, the water eddies that formed absorbed heat, melting the remaining ice faster. Scientist Mario Guarino and her colleagues formed the model that predicted the 2035 date. This is much earlier than most models.

    So can we fix it? Even at record pace, it's probably too late to completely reverse the effects of climate change. But we can slow it, and prepare for the changed world.